Disclaimer
I recently expressed some opinions on participating in the stock market. There have been some interesting comments as a result. I enjoy such but I feel the need to state a disclaimer. This also covers opinions not necessarily of a financial nature. To do so, I’m going to steal bits from QTR Fringe Finance because he best expresses my thoughts on the matter; I haven’t changed his wording too much:
My posts represent my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any stocks mentioned at any time without warning.
These are not recommendations to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in.
None of my comments are a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not hold opinions I write about any longer than it takes to write it down. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish any comments, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position.
You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the far side of the fringe … but I can see the fringe off in the distance.
If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them.
I do my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts in unusual mental states sometimes. I often edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. It might still be there.
Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
Mostly I won’t give stock advice unless specifically asked – or unless the muse strikes. If and when you ask – about stocks or anything else, I’ll be happy to flap my figurative lips until the cows come home. And beyond if I feel the urge.
I’ve played the stock game for a few decades now and can provide definitive, God’s-honest-truth on methods to lose money. Many of those methods involve listening to experts. I will share what little I’ve learned but my advice is worth what you paid for it.
But that advice or comment may give you a starting point to form your own opinions.
Now. Back to our regularly scheduled program.
Maybe…
Endorsed.
My motto when it comes to investing or trading?
Buy high; Sell low; Make it up in volume.
My motto has always been, “Invest in yourself. Develop the habit of generosity and always take time to listen.”
Buying and/or owning stock, like any bet, is always a gamble. I only ever owned 5 different company stocks, all which were DRP (dividend reinvestment) stocks and held them for 30+ years. The dividends paid were always reinvested, buying incremental shares, and I also would invest around $50 bucks from time to time into these stocks. After 30 years, and a total outlay from my pockets of approximately $10-$15K, this investment grew to a value of approximately $250K. I think the stock market is largely a long-term hold game. At least that’s how I played it.
Determining good investments is tricky.
One example is Municipal Bonds, which were once a solid investment with a pretty good return, and it helped to know you were investing in your own community as well.
Then came time for all the screwed-up leftist cities to default on said loans, and a lot of investors saw it coming while they could still cash out; others didn’t.
Research & diversify has served us well.
I like stocks & metal; but now’s not the time to invest in either.
Hope you already have!
I have a small trading account….my little vanity project….in which I did OK last month, mostly in the metals. I was up about 4% for January. But they all crashed hard and I have yet to get back in. I’m still not convinced that what we’re seeing today isn’t a dead cat bounce. That is more my luck than advice….I have been wrong far more often than I have been right.
I’ll offer this addendum…..
I have a portion of our wealth….about 5%….in a plain, vanilla, mayonnaise-on-white-bread-boring, so-easy-that-an-idiot-can-do-it [**azlib looks in the mirror**] investment: U.S. Treasuries.
Granted, you’re not going to get record returns. You can see today’s returns here. But I find a Treasury Note to be safe. I have mine set to reinvest, so it basically runs on autopilot. And you don’t need a lot of money to get started here….you buy these Treasuries in $100 increments.
I have mine set up in what I call a “Ladder”, which I’ll describe with a hypothetical. Say that you’re starting with $12,000. I divide that in half. One half goes into very short term Treasuries and the other half goes into longer term Bills.
For the short term half, I divide those by 4. If you’re following my math, $12,000÷2=$6000 and $6000÷4=$1500. Treasuries refresh on Tuesdays, and so on four consecutive Tuesdays, I buy 15 4-week Bills (15×$100=$1500). My overarching goal here is that, should I need to get my hands on this cash, I am never more than a month away from having access to half of it.
For the long term half, I divide that into 3 unequal parts. Here too, I start with $6000, but I divide that into $2500, $2000 and $1500. I put the $2500 into 13-week Bills, $2000 into 26-week Bills and $1500 into 52-week Bills.
At first blush, this is going to look like very small returns. Last Tuesday (day before yesterday), I paid $99.717667 for a $100 4-week Bill. In 4 weeks, I will have made 28 cents (plus some fractions of cents). Who cares about 28 cents? But most of our thinking is in terms of annual returns. There are 13 4-week periods each year (4 weeks ×13=52 weeks). So $.28×13=$3.67. The annual yield of that 4-week Bill is 3.67%. Tell me about the interest rate that your bank is offering for a savings account.
I find the beauty here in the simplicity and the flexibility. I have this all set up to refresh itself automatically….I don’t have to watch a chart or go back to it at all. If I do feel the need to check things, I look at my bank account that I have connected with Treasury Direct and see a deposit coming to me every Tuesday. If my hypothetical of $12000 is not right for you, then fine, cut it in half, double it, chop off or add a zero. You can build your ladder however you like. I built “the rungs” of my ladder with Bills less than a year, but you can also buy 2-, 5-, 10-year, and other longer duration Bills.
Inneresting. I’m gonna take a look.
I have $20k in cash and $20k in silver coins.
I will not put the cash in the bank because it will be considered income and I will be *taxed*. (don’t ask where I got it from)
My bank only pays 1% on what I have in the account.
Inflation is probably more than you think it is and I think it’s at least 10%/year.
That’s why I am considering “safe” ways to store my cash – so that maybe I can earn something from it.
Part of the problem is the fact that it is cold hard cash.
No matter what I do with it, other than what I am doing right now, is that it will gain the attention of others and then I will lose a big chunk (25% or more) instantly to the tax thief.
If I try to put it in the stock market or CD’s, or the like, I have to turn the cash into paper then send it to the marketer-bank and again it will be taxed.
So I am stuck. There are worse ways to be stuck.
My saving grace in having this stuff (cash and silver coins) is an escape route if the bottom falls out of the criminal gov’t financial fiasco – that is, if they shut the banks (like has been done before) or worse, and therefore my wife and I will have things of value to live on.
Cash and silver are not my only survival methods when things go south. We are deeply supplied, and connected with local others, for methods such as networking and bartering. I have 10 cases of Jack Daniels and 10 cases of Bacardi 151.
I’m always looking for ways to improve and always open to suggestions but I am probably the most cautious person on the planet. At 71years old I am too old to lose because recovery is probably not possible.
My advice is worth what you paid for it … but if I had $20k in cash and $20k in money, I’d sit with it and not bother with stocks or other methods for TPTB to take your holdings. Now – if you had a substantial 401K or some such already on someone’s “official” list, I’d suggest something else. FYI: silver seems to be dropping a bit; you might want to convert some falling-value paper into money before the price goes up. I personally recommend pre-1964 “junk” silver coin – dimes and quarters. Depends on what your metals dealer charges though.
For general information: Right now, I can sell a SLV Mar20 65put for $440. I have to buy it back by March 20 at whatever price at the time I buy. If the price goes up, the price I have to buy it back at will be less than $440; I keep the difference. If the price goes down below $65, I have to buy 100 shares of SLV for $6110. This is a good deal if I’m willing to buy SLV at that price; not so much if I don’t want it.
It is paper silver, not physical (drat!)
Your first sentence. I’ve had this stuff for quite awhile now, long enough that I don’t even think about it. So I’ll just continue to do the same. But always watching for an opportunity to do “something” as long as it’s fairly safe.
Regarding silver. Just checked my normal dealer, JM Bullion, and silver is at $77.11 right now as I write this. That’s more than twice what I paid the last time I bought, last July. If the price drops back to to $30 or so I’ll consider buying more.
In the meantime, alcohol prices are still the same so I’ll keep buying it a case at a time and adding to my stash.
My dealer goes with Kitco. $74 something but it’s moving a lot. I don’t think you’ll see $30 again but $60-$65 my be feasible. We don’t get taxed on silver here so just agent commissions.