Three days like this. slow rain. blanket gray sky. still air. dull light. and slow rain.
you must look for it on purpose. no announcing rumble or flashing light blades. only slow rain.
slow rain does not fall in drops, it seems. but a veil of wet that lays itself silently, softly across the outside world then gathers tiny pellets that roll, slide and dangle off all edges
slipping to the ground below. slow drip...slow drip...slow drip.
I'm not an economist, not even good with stock trading. I do tend towards the Austrian school of thought but I don't recall why because it was long ago when I studied such things, was too bored with it to delve deeper, and have not looked into the details in a very long time.
But I notice people blaming Trump's tariffs for the market collapse of the past few days. Trillions of electronic dollars have been lost since Thursday; people forgetting those electronic dollars were pumped into the system since roughly Oct '23. Stock prices went up because it took more devalued dollars to buy something of more or less constant value. Gold was $35/oz when I got out of high school; a silver quarter was worth 25¢. That quarter is now worth $5.60 just in melt value. That quarter isn't worth more, this dollar is worth less.
The crash was coming; Trump's tariffs simply pushed the already shaky structure over. Sometimes it's best to tear the bandages off a festering wound of our economic "system", scrape the dead flesh away, then clean and re-bandage the wound ... or set it free to clean air to heal.
I don't think anyone not "on the inside" truly expected to find the rot as extensive and deep as it apparently is.
You don't really think that 401K is yours, do you? It's like "owning" your house; you own it until the bank or government wants it back. You do know that when you give "money" to a bank, it becomes the bank's property, don't you? In return, they give you what in effect is an IOU.
Whether Trump's plan works or not is far too soon to tell - he hasn't been in office 3 months yet and still has to work with the Biden budget set before the election until the end of the current fiscal year Oct 1.
The government's timing of things has gotten really off-kilter: President elected in Nov, doesn't take office until January, and stuck with a budget set the October before the election; it's 9 months into the administration before the President has full control (within what Congress allows) of his policies. Makes daylight savings time seem logical.
Personally - having seen "outsourcing" since the 80s - I think tariffs are a potentially good way to turn us back into a producer nation rather than a consumer/welfare state. Next, get rid of so many cockamamie tax laws and regulations that make it cheaper to produce overseas.
As I've seen it said, the only ones not receiving benefits from taxpayer's money are the taxpayers.
I don't think its time to "buy the dip" just yet - it wouldn't surprise me to see the S&P500 down to 4000 or lower - recall it was 3800 when Biden took office and had dipped to 4100 in Oct 23 when the Fed announced it was dumping $10T into the market. It peaked around 6200 - almost a 40% increase in numbers on a computer system somewhere. Need to flush that excess funny-money out of the system. Best do it now rather than let it fester into incurable gangrene.
Assuming it hasn't gotten that far already.
Of course, now that I've spread my words of doom and gloom, the market will start going back up and the world will become full of unicorn farts and rainbows. Quoting part of QTR's disclaimer, "This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money."
These types of places are becoming very rare - a 100+ yo mining camp that hasn't been lost. Of course, it's well off a beaten path and a long way along rough roads. Still, not much left.
