... but I can't avoid it any longer.

[DT: In response to: Taps For NATO]

On almost every issue under discussion today, I am either ambivalent (tariffs) or in complete agreement with Pres. Trump. He is largely doing what I elected him to do, and doing more of it than I had imagined.

The one great, glaring exception is his foreign policy. America, and Americans, will long regret his approach to handling the Russia-Ukraine war.

But first, some concessions…..
If you're going to tell me that after 20+ years of the GWOT, America is tired of being at war, that our military is worn out and under-equipped, then I'll agree with you.

If you're going to tell me that the Euros have taken our protective (and nuclear) umbrella as an opportunity to create soft semi-socialist states, then I'll agree with you.

If you're going to tell me that Ukraine is corrupt, and that a good portion of the monies that we (and others) have sent them have wormed its' way back to primarily liberal interests in our respective capitals, then I'll concede that too.

If you're going to tell me that America is coming to the end of the road in facing our own fiscal problems, then I'll agree with that as well.

Give me any of your reasons supporting why we shouldn't be helping in Ukraine, and I'll agree with each of them.

But I still think that we should.

The Europeans….our friends in Europe….are frightened to death of the future that Russia is presenting them with. These are nations to which most of us can trace our ancestry. These are friends who have been our trading partners, our allies in all sorts of endeavors, and they do not want Russia to succeed in her ambitions against Ukraine. The Danes gave Ukraine 19 F-16s….that's a complete squadron. The Dutch gave more F-16s. All totalled up, the Ukranians are said to have 90 F-16s from primarily European sources. The French have given Ukraine Mirage 2000s. The Latvian's gave all of their Stinger missiles to Ukraine. I could further mention the armor, the air defense, the blankets and bandages, and all sorts of things, and the point remains: Europe is invested in defending Ukraine.

But despite this great fear that they fear in Ukraine, there is still a greater need for more support. Take a took at this map. Scroll around and click on the countries. Would you rather look at a report? OK. Here's a report. From that report's Conclusion, with my emphases…..

"...[I]n the bigger picture, the support for Ukraine appears low. Most large donors, including Germany, the US, or the UK, only allocate around 0.2% of their annual GDP to Ukraine, while Italy, Spain, or France allocated only around 0.1% of GDP per year. These numbers are small from a historical perspective (earlier wars and crises) and can be compared to minor domestic spending priorities. In most Western countries, questionable subsidy programs, e.g. for company cars or diesel fuel, consume much larger sums of taxpayer money per year than what has been mobilized for Ukraine. Through the lens of Western governments’ fiscal budgets, aid to Ukraine thus looks more like a minor political "pet project" than a major fiscal effort..... 

You'll ask: Why should I care about the Russian intent with Ukraine? Russia wants all of Ukraine, not just the 4 oblasts that they have (illegally) annexed. This was evident three years ago when they aimed straight at Kiev. It is also evident today. Here* are the conditions that the Russians are setting today for a cease fire.
1) Ukraine's neutrality…no alliances which will protect Ukraine from Russia.
2) Ukraine's effective demilitarization.
3) "De-nazification" of Ukraine.
4) No Ukrainian restrictions on the Russian language inside Ukraine.

Atop all that, the Russians require that Ukraine acknowledge the Russian annexation of Ukrainian lands.

Putting that all together, what part of that amounts to any concession from the Russians?

*BTW, I have found the Military & History Youtube channel to be a very thoughtful and balanced discussion of events in Ukraine. I encourage a full view of the video I linked, as well as of his other videos.

The rest of Europe looks at this and sees a Russia that is attempting to reconsitute the USSR. The Baltic states….Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania….believe that they will be overrun. You can see this by watching how heavily they are invested in stopping Russia in Ukraine. Poland too feels this same pressure.

These are all NATO allies, but back to the point of this post, what happens if NATO is a "zombie alliance" and that "…without US leadership, NATO cannot survive as a coherent structure….Europe will have to defend itself – and it is not ready."

If NATO falls apart, and if Europe will have to defend itself, they're going to have to provide all the support that the US used to give them. Here's what that means: Nukes. In the short term, the Poles are discussing placing themselves under a French nuclear umbrella, but for the long term, they're discussing adding that capability for themselves. [https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-tusk-plan-train-poland-men-military-service-russia/] Who else is thinking along the same lines? The Germans.

"...Today, fear is palpable as Germans are debating a question that sounds like it was taken right from the early Cold War playbooks: What if the United States abandons Europe in face of a Russian aggression? In this debate, Germans quickly come up with answers: (1) a somewhat Europeanized deterrent, based on French and British nuclear forces, (2) Germany co-financing the French force de frappe in exchange for greater security assurances from Paris, or (3) a German bomb.... [my emphasis]" https://thebulletin.org/2024/03/germany-debates-nuclear-weapons-again-but-now-its-different/

Think about that a minute. The Germans are discussing having nuclear weapons.

If NATO fails, that is where Europe is headed. I think that it is in American interests to prevent that possibility from occurring. And you do that by being involved in Ukraine….today.

Moreover, America is in a full-fledged trade war today with China. We have badgered and bribed the rest of the world into lining up with us against China. Elevated tariffs have been placed, and then paused to allow 90 days to negotiate new terms…..for every country except China. As I read Trump here, his aim is to entice as much manufacturing back into the US as possible, but failing that, to have manufacturing move away from China. I think that Trump is pissed about China's role in Covid, as well as China's expansion via their Belt-and-Road Initiative and quasi-militarily in the Western Pacific. Trump wants to bring American manufacturing back so that when the next pandemic happens, we're not forced to go begging for PPE or Pharma products. He wants us to have an independent source of key components (steel, chips) with which to build a military. He wants American jobs here, providing American products to Americans.

But what is Europe's response to this, today? They're planning to go back to Beijing in July to speak with Xi. Not meeting with the Chinese in Europe, or elsewhere. In Beijing, on Xi's terf and on Xi's terms. [https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-leaders-plan-beijing-trip-july-summit-with-chinas-xi-scmp-reports-2025-04-10/]

This is the net result of Trump's (apparant) abandonment of NATO. If you won't help us in our hour of need, then we'll think twice when the hour of need arrives for you.

Pulling away from Europe and NATO is a terrible, terrible mistake. It endangers every agreement and alliance we have. The future will be far less stable (read: "profitable") for everyone in the world without American leadership.

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