I’ve Been Dragging My Feet At Getting Back To This,
… but I can’t avoid it any longer.
[DT: In response to: Taps For NATO]
On almost every issue under discussion today, I am either ambivalent (tariffs) or in complete agreement with Pres. Trump. He is largely doing what I elected him to do, and doing more of it than I had imagined.
The one great, glaring exception is his foreign policy. America, and Americans, will long regret his approach to handling the Russia-Ukraine war.
But first, some concessions…..
If you’re going to tell me that after 20+ years of the GWOT, America is tired of being at war, that our military is worn out and under-equipped, then I’ll agree with you.
If you’re going to tell me that the Euros have taken our protective (and nuclear) umbrella as an opportunity to create soft semi-socialist states, then I’ll agree with you.
If you’re going to tell me that Ukraine is corrupt, and that a good portion of the monies that we (and others) have sent them have wormed its’ way back to primarily liberal interests in our respective capitals, then I’ll concede that too.
If you’re going to tell me that America is coming to the end of the road in facing our own fiscal problems, then I’ll agree with that as well.
Give me any of your reasons supporting why we shouldn’t be helping in Ukraine, and I’ll agree with each of them.
But I still think that we should.
The Europeans….our friends in Europe….are frightened to death of the future that Russia is presenting them with. These are nations to which most of us can trace our ancestry. These are friends who have been our trading partners, our allies in all sorts of endeavors, and they do not want Russia to succeed in her ambitions against Ukraine. The Danes gave Ukraine 19 F-16s….that’s a complete squadron. The Dutch gave more F-16s. All totalled up, the Ukranians are said to have 90 F-16s from primarily European sources. The French have given Ukraine Mirage 2000s. The Latvian’s gave all of their Stinger missiles to Ukraine. I could further mention the armor, the air defense, the blankets and bandages, and all sorts of things, and the point remains: Europe is invested in defending Ukraine.
But despite this great fear that they fear in Ukraine, there is still a greater need for more support. Take a took at this map. Scroll around and click on the countries. Would you rather look at a report? OK. Here’s a report. From that report’s Conclusion, with my emphases…..
“…[I]n the bigger picture, the support for Ukraine appears low. Most large donors, including Germany, the US, or the UK, only allocate around 0.2% of their annual GDP to Ukraine, while Italy, Spain, or France allocated only around 0.1% of GDP per year. These numbers are small from a historical perspective (earlier wars and crises) and can be compared to minor domestic spending priorities. In most Western countries, questionable subsidy programs, e.g. for company cars or diesel fuel, consume much larger sums of taxpayer money per year than what has been mobilized for Ukraine. Through the lens of Western governments’ fiscal budgets, aid to Ukraine thus looks more like a minor political “pet project” than a major fiscal effort…..
You’ll ask: Why should I care about the Russian intent with Ukraine? Russia wants all of Ukraine, not just the 4 oblasts that they have (illegally) annexed. This was evident three years ago when they aimed straight at Kiev. It is also evident today. Here* are the conditions that the Russians are setting today for a cease fire.
1) Ukraine’s neutrality…no alliances which will protect Ukraine from Russia.
2) Ukraine’s effective demilitarization.
3) “De-nazification” of Ukraine.
4) No Ukrainian restrictions on the Russian language inside Ukraine.
Atop all that, the Russians require that Ukraine acknowledge the Russian annexation of Ukrainian lands.
Putting that all together, what part of that amounts to any concession from the Russians?
*BTW, I have found the Military & History Youtube channel to be a very thoughtful and balanced discussion of events in Ukraine. I encourage a full view of the video I linked, as well as of his other videos.
The rest of Europe looks at this and sees a Russia that is attempting to reconsitute the USSR. The Baltic states….Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania….believe that they will be overrun. You can see this by watching how heavily they are invested in stopping Russia in Ukraine. Poland too feels this same pressure.
These are all NATO allies, but back to the point of this post, what happens if NATO is a “zombie alliance” and that “…without US leadership, NATO cannot survive as a coherent structure….Europe will have to defend itself – and it is not ready.”
If NATO falls apart, and if Europe will have to defend itself, they’re going to have to provide all the support that the US used to give them. Here’s what that means: Nukes. In the short term, the Poles are discussing placing themselves under a French nuclear umbrella, but for the long term, they’re discussing adding that capability for themselves. [https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-tusk-plan-train-poland-men-military-service-russia/] Who else is thinking along the same lines? The Germans.
“…Today, fear is palpable as Germans are debating a question that sounds like it was taken right from the early Cold War playbooks: What if the United States abandons Europe in face of a Russian aggression? In this debate, Germans quickly come up with answers: (1) a somewhat Europeanized deterrent, based on French and British nuclear forces, (2) Germany co-financing the French force de frappe in exchange for greater security assurances from Paris, or (3) a German bomb…. [my emphasis]” https://thebulletin.org/2024/03/germany-debates-nuclear-weapons-again-but-now-its-different/
Think about that a minute. The Germans are discussing having nuclear weapons.
If NATO fails, that is where Europe is headed. I think that it is in American interests to prevent that possibility from occurring. And you do that by being involved in Ukraine….today.
Moreover, America is in a full-fledged trade war today with China. We have badgered and bribed the rest of the world into lining up with us against China. Elevated tariffs have been placed, and then paused to allow 90 days to negotiate new terms…..for every country except China. As I read Trump here, his aim is to entice as much manufacturing back into the US as possible, but failing that, to have manufacturing move away from China. I think that Trump is pissed about China’s role in Covid, as well as China’s expansion via their Belt-and-Road Initiative and quasi-militarily in the Western Pacific. Trump wants to bring American manufacturing back so that when the next pandemic happens, we’re not forced to go begging for PPE or Pharma products. He wants us to have an independent source of key components (steel, chips) with which to build a military. He wants American jobs here, providing American products to Americans.
But what is Europe’s response to this, today? They’re planning to go back to Beijing in July to speak with Xi. Not meeting with the Chinese in Europe, or elsewhere. In Beijing, on Xi’s terf and on Xi’s terms. [https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-leaders-plan-beijing-trip-july-summit-with-chinas-xi-scmp-reports-2025-04-10/]
This is the net result of Trump’s (apparant) abandonment of NATO. If you won’t help us in our hour of need, then we’ll think twice when the hour of need arrives for you.
Pulling away from Europe and NATO is a terrible, terrible mistake. It endangers every agreement and alliance we have. The future will be far less stable (read: “profitable”) for everyone in the world without American leadership.
I don’t agree with almost all of that.
In 1975 and again in 1976 I almost got killed TWICE defending that continent and here we are 50 years later and they STILL don’t have their shit together?
And, what have any of them European countries done for the US?
Are there ANY European soldiers on guard here in the US under life threatening conditions?
Lastly, the US “honeydew” list is long, very long, and frankly it has no more fux to give. It is bankrupt, falling apart by all measures and there is the probability that it can’t even defend itself.
I’m in favor of maximum isolationism for at least the next 10-20 years.
“Pulling away from Europe and NATO is a terrible, terrible mistake. It endangers every agreement and alliance we have.”
I don’t agree with that sentiment.
I don’t remember the specifics, but from what I’ve read, for the last 10 or 11 years our government, under mostly Democrat presidents, has reneged on promises and agreements that we made about not expanding NATO. Doesn’t that mean that we are at least partly responsible for the fighting that is going on there? I think that any balanced coverage should include those facts in the discussion.
I think it is also an open question as to whether or not Russia is really intent on reconstituting the old U.S.S.R. empire, or just trying to protect and reclaim the Russian enclaves in the Ukraine.
I didn’t like the way the president of the Ukraine was recently belligerent toward our U.S. president in the oval office, for all the world to see. Before meeting with President Trump he conferred with Democrat politicians, and before that with British and French officials. He promised a deal for the U.S. on rare earth metals which was allegedly presented to us in a way that was contrary to Ukrainian law and, had we gone into that country and built the infrastructure to mine those metals, could have been easily disavowed by the Ukrainians and been given to the British. Very fishy. Two recent foiled attempts to kill our president were by individuals who are said to have had Ukrainian connections. Something very wrong there.
When I was teaching Freshman English Composition many years ago, I never tried to influence my students to favor my opinions, but I did encourage them to diversify their sources when researching a topic. I think we should all do that, especially for topics as controversial as the Ukraine situation. I don’t think we are betraying longtime allies. We are recognizing that these allies have bled us dry of men, money and materiel, for a very long time. I think it would be foolhardy to get talked into another European war.
I’m no deep geopolitical thinker, I don’t see how any good can come from this Ukrainian mess that we have gotten ourselves ensnared in, some of it by our own fecklessness and corruption. All paths out of the mess look painful and uncertain and tragic.
I have a standard saying: If you can’t or won’t defend your country, you will lose it to somebody else. It’s Fleming’s First Law of Conquest. I have a second Law: All nations are born in blood, either from direct conquest or by someone taking over the wreckage of a previous nation. These two Laws have been in effect since before written history, and they cannot be broken, only forestalled, as they have been during the just-ended no-longer-in-effect Pax Americana.
The Western Euros are feminized and weak, and they can no longer defend their countries. They are beset by enemies both within and without. Nor can they or will they defend their allied border buffer nations between themselves and the Russians.
It’s geopolitics as old as history. Russia wants vassal states. Heck, everybody wants vassals, always, everywhere. It’s good to have vassals. Western Euro feminized nations will sue for peace, bend the knee, and become Russian vassals because women and feminized men are too scared to fight. For 1500 years, Central Europe has been an ever-shifting collection of vassal states and conquered and annexed territory. It sucks to be a Central Euro ethnic, rarely can they have a nation to call their own, but that’s just the way it is.
During this Pax, the patterns of history were reversed. We Americans should have been collecting tribute from our NATO vassals in order to pay for their defense. Instead, we were the vassal, spending our treasure and getting nothing other than Europe not fighting each other as they have been doing continuously since the fall of Rome. Why did we do this? Because we didn’t want European wars to go nuclear. Two world wars were enough, please.
No stable strategic alignment last forever. The United States will annex Greenland, and Alberta/Saskatchewan and maybe BC will petition to join us. And the progressive sissies in Ontario will let them go. Canada is ripe for the plucking. Maybe we’ll give them New England in return, but we’ll keep New York.
We are entering an age of realignment and shifting boundaries. Don’t cry for what is being lost. The only thing we have to decide is what is best for the United States.
T is right, the Euros have to stand up and defend themselves. If they can’t or won’t, if instead they keep crying for American succor, then we have to cut them loose to Fleming’s First Law. If the peace is to be kept, it’s time for the NATO vassals to keep the peace from a position of strength. Unfortunately, there may not be enough time to get strong, and they may be too far gone. It is on such situations that the lessons of history are learned.
What makes us special and strong? What is best for us? We are/were the Arsenal of Democracy because we are/were the Land of Liberty. Our ancient and honorable Liberties must be preserved and strengthened if we are to remain the exceptional nation that colonizes the Solar System. Unfortunately we are Gulliver in a Lilliputian world, and every nation would see us tied down and our liberties lost. Every would-be tyrant in every nation will rejoice to see us break up and become as South America is, a non-player in world affairs.
Firstly, Happy Easter to everyone. For me, today is a moment of reflection on the important things in life, and not just on whatever it was that I gave up for Lent. I hope that you’re enjoying your day.
But before I get to my point, I want to thank DT for elevating my extended comment to a post of it’s own. Further, I want to thank ghost, Walt and John for their respectful, though differing comments. This is what I would hope that the rest of the internet could be: Differing views presented without name-calling or ad hominem. Gentlemen, all.
Ghost, my reply to you is the easiest: We’re going to have to agree to disagree here. I think that the best example of “maximum isolation” is North Korea, and that is not what I’d like the US to do. We are bettered by being involved around the world.
Walt, you encouraged me to diversify my sources, and that is a hard thing to do. First of all, while I admit to my own biases, I also think that very few of us are able to successfully get out of our own “bubbles of confirmation bias”. Everywhere I go, the algorithms that feed me my next thing to read or view are basing their suggestions on what I’ve previously read. Their goal is to keep my eyes glued to their screens, and presenting me with information that I won’t want to consume is, in a way, an encouragement for me to change the channel.
That said, I did try. I googled “promises regarding NATO expansion”, and got a list of references. The first is an article from a place called “The National Security Archive” entitled “NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard“. It is a longish-article, and I confess to having only skimmed it, but the gist is that Gobachev had agreed to a unified Germany joining NATO, but that there were several implications that NATO expansion wouldn’t go further east than that. The next article was something from Harvard entitled “There was no promise not to enlarge NATO“. This article isn’t terribly long, and it makes the opposite case: Not only was NATO expansion not promised, but that implicitly, Gorbachev had agreed to it….
So which is it? Did the agreement on unifying Germany include a provision limiting NATO expansion or did it not? I guess it depends on who you ask.
I finished my search by reading a portion of the third article on my list, this one from a British think-tank called Chatham House: “Myths and misconceptions in the debate on Russia“. This is a very long article….113 pages….and no, I did not read it all. But here are a few snippets….
To John’s point, if Pax Americana means that America must put it’s fingers into every potential hot spot around the globe, then no, I do no endorse that. I view the Tucker Carlson/JD Vance/Marco Rubio line regarding “warmongers searching for never-ending wars” (paraphrased) as a slur and saying it diminishes their influence and their roles. No one is mongering for war. No one wants war to never end. Everyone wants peace….the only question is peace on whose terms? I believe that there is a point where the stability offered by our support in certain instances justifies the cost of providing that support. Regarding any hypothetical future acquisitions of Greenland or parts of Canada as American soil, I go back to what I highlighted above: Every country should choose it’s own alliances. If the Greenlanders or the British Columbians or the Saskatchewegians (that’s prolly not right, but you get my point) see value by coming under our flag, then I’m OK with it. But we don’t have the right to just snatch them into our fold because we think that it should be. I don’t want vassals.
This is beginning to be too long for a comment, but I’ll end with something that Youtube brought me last night….an interview of Anne Applebaum with Jordan Harbinger. I had never heard of either of them (again, the algorithm), but on looking around, Harbinger is some sort of lawyer with a small Youtube channel, and Applebaum is a journalist/historian/author who lives in Poland. I watched the entire hour and a half video, and I can’t recommend the whole thing, mainly because I just don’t like Applebaum. She has a complex history….she’s written for both the Washington Post and The Atlantic, neither of which endere her to me, but she’s also had a position at the American Enterprise Institute, which does. The interview was held in February, so it is slightly dated. What really chapped me about her came at the end of the interview when she brought out the complaints about Musk’s access to government databases and the authoritarian path that she sees Trump taking us on. She complains that by firing wide swathes of the .gov, Trump is instilling only like-minded troops into his government. However, she completely misses the one-sidedness of the Biden administration (not to mention the lefty leanings of the fed.gov dating all the way back to Lois Lerner.). Anyway, the interview is divided in to chapters, and if you only want a small portion, I recommend the chapter on “The history of Russian aggression”, beginning at 20:16.
I was thinking more like this:
Isolationism has been defined as a policy or doctrine of trying to isolate one’s country from the affairs of other nations by declining to enter into alliances, foreign economic commitments, international agreements, and generally attempting to make one’s economy entirely self-reliant; seeking to devote the entire efforts of one’s country to its own advancement, both diplomatically and economically, while remaining in a state of peace by avoiding foreign entanglements and responsibilities.
I believe Geo Washington and I were in agreement with that last sentence.
These aren’t all of my thoughts on this subject.
az:
Here’s a link to an article with much food for thought:
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2025/03/vasko-kohlmayer/the-ukrainian-war-was-provoked-by-nato/
I don’t know the author’s background but he refers to a number of authorities on the topic. I’m not one of those authorities but the article made a lot of sense to me.
I respect your efforts to look into the origin of the Ukraine war from another viewpoint.
I’ve known this for at least 5 years, the NATO expansion, and am disappointed that this is apparently news to people just now. The lying assed media-gov’t again. They’re gonna get us all killed.
My understanding is that nobody even know it when it happens. You can’t see them from the ground because they 10 – 20 miles up. And you can’t hear them. But in your core you might “feel” them.
Then there is a brief flash of the whitest light you have ever seen. Very brief, like, you don’t even know if you seen it – maybe you imagined it. Then, within seconds, everyone and every living thing in the range of that flash is instantly dead. Right on the spot.
I was disappointed too when I learned of these things some years ago, ranted at the news-casters on TV because no one else would listen to me.
Four years ago I came down with Lyme Disease, which laid me very low for 10 months. First time in my life to be sick for more than a day or two. Thought I might be near the end, but since recovering most of my strength I don’t get as upset about the colossal stupidity as I once did. At my age and in my physical condition I can’t do much about any of it beyond my own home and family.
I’m thankful to be alive for however long that may continue, thankful for my wife, our daughter, our grandchildren. Each to their own, but for me, prayer has been a help. As Longfellow once wrote: “God is alive. He is not dead.” I believe that too. I think Gerard did as well.