Shutdown
Maybe, maybe not.
Odds are much better “for” as a shutdown would play into the administration’s hands.
Having been on both sides of a shutdown or two (thanks for the paid vacation), here’s my observation:
The parts that the public finds useful will be shutdown (payments, parks).
The parts the government finds useful will not be shutdown (collections, congressional perks)

Shut it all down and you will have the problem resolved in 5 minutes.
Did you see Pete Hegseth tell the corpulent brass they’ll be doing pushups real soon? Here’s a hilarious take.
https://theferalirishman.blogspot.com/2025/09/lil-pete-talks-pt.html