I'm not an economist, not even good with stock trading. I do tend towards the Austrian school of thought but I don't recall why because it was long ago when I studied such things, was too bored with it to delve deeper, and have not looked into the details in a very long time.

But I notice people blaming Trump's tariffs for the market collapse of the past few days. Trillions of electronic dollars have been lost since Thursday; people forgetting those electronic dollars were pumped into the system since roughly Oct '23. Stock prices went up because it took more devalued dollars to buy something of more or less constant value. Gold was $35/oz when I got out of high school; a silver quarter was worth 25¢. That quarter is now worth $5.60 just in melt value. That quarter isn't worth more, this dollar is worth less.

The crash was coming; Trump's tariffs simply pushed the already shaky structure over. Sometimes it's best to tear the bandages off a festering wound of our economic "system", scrape the dead flesh away, then clean and re-bandage the wound ... or set it free to clean air to heal.

I don't think anyone not "on the inside" truly expected to find the rot as extensive and deep as it apparently is.

You don't really think that 401K is yours, do you? It's like "owning" your house; you own it until the bank or government wants it back.
You do know that when you give "money" to a bank, it becomes the bank's property, don't you? In return, they give you what in effect is an IOU.

Whether Trump's plan works or not is far too soon to tell - he hasn't been in office 3 months yet and still has to work with the Biden budget set before the election until the end of the current fiscal year Oct 1.

The government's timing of things has gotten really off-kilter: President elected in Nov, doesn't take office until January, and stuck with a budget set the October before the election; it's 9 months into the administration before the President has full control (within what Congress allows) of his policies. Makes daylight savings time seem logical.

Personally - having seen "outsourcing" since the 80s - I think tariffs are a potentially good way to turn us back into a producer nation rather than a consumer/welfare state. Next, get rid of so many cockamamie tax laws and regulations that make it cheaper to produce overseas.

As I've seen it said, the only ones not receiving benefits from taxpayer's money are the taxpayers.

I don't think its time to "buy the dip" just yet - it wouldn't surprise me to see the S&P500 down to 4000 or lower - recall it was 3800 when Biden took office and had dipped to 4100 in Oct 23 when the Fed announced it was dumping $10T into the market. It peaked around 6200 - almost a 40% increase in numbers on a computer system somewhere. Need to flush that excess funny-money out of the system. Best do it now rather than let it fester into incurable gangrene.

Assuming it hasn't gotten that far already.

Of course, now that I've spread my words of doom and gloom, the market will start going back up and the world will become full of unicorn farts and rainbows. Quoting part of QTR's disclaimer, "This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money."

Neo asked me to post this. It's already been posted on AD.

About the blog, the poetry book, and the essay book

by VANDERLEUN on APRIL 6, 2025

Tomorrow or the next day this blog will go dark. It’s what Gerard wanted, although it’s not an easy thing to do. This blog meant so much to him and to so many people for so long.

The book of Gerard’s poetry that I’ve edited should be published in a month or two. When it’s available, I’ll send an announcement to the new blog, and some of you might also get emails about it if you’re on an emailing list I’ve generated.

I’ve been thinking that there may be enough material for me to publish a second book of Gerard’s essays.
There’s about a 50% chance of that and if I do it I’ll keep you posted.